{"id":47680,"date":"2025-11-08T10:59:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T07:59:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/?p=47680"},"modified":"2025-11-08T10:59:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T07:59:50","slug":"on-the-edge-again-drums-of-war-blare-over-muted-peace-anniversary-commemorations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/47680\/","title":{"rendered":"On the Edge Again: Drums of War Blare over Muted Peace Anniversary Commemorations"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u200e<\/strong>\u200eWhen the guns fell silent after the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022, the nation along with the world exhaled with relief.<\/p>\n

\u200eTwo years of brutal war between the federal government and the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF) had torn Ethiopia apart, reportedly leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe agreement, mediated under the African Union\u2019s auspices, promised an end to the carnage and a gradual political normalization in the country\u2019s north. \u200eNow, three years later, that promise appears to be under severe strain.<\/p>\n

From renewed accusations of border and administrative boundaries violations and not-so-hidden military mobilizations to mutual allegations of betrayal, the language between Mekelle and Addis Ababa has hardened accompanied by occasional disgruntled and discontented commentaries and responses from Asmara.<\/p>\n

\u200eMany observers who spoke to The Reporter <\/em>this week say a second round of war now appears inevitable\u2014or may have just slowly reignited over the last few days.<\/p>\n

\u200eMeanwhile, officials on both sides now speak in tones uncomfortably reminiscent of the months before war first broke out in 2020.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe latest flashpoint came from the Afar Regional State, where officials accused “TPLF forces” of crossing into their territory and opening an attack on pastoralist communities in an act they described as a \u201cclear violation of the Pretoria Agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eAccording to a statement from the Afar Region Communication Bureau, on Wednesday, November 5, 2025, TPLF fighters \u201ccrossed into the Afar Region through border areas in Zone Two, Megale Woreda, particularly in Tonsaa Kebele, as well as the Wara\u2019a and Milki localities,\u201d firing heavy weapons at innocent Afar pastoralists.<\/p>\n

\u200e”While opening fire in Tonsa kebele, despite appeals from peace-loving Afar elders urging them to withdraw, the TPLF forces responded with defiance, saying \u2018We will not turn back,\u2019 and escalated the confrontation,” reads the statement from the regional administration.<\/p>\n

Officials in Afar say they will defend themselves from external aggression as this week\u2019s development rekindles fears of another cycle of bloodshed along Ethiopia\u2019s most fragile front.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe federal government has yet to issue any official statements, but Getachew Reda, former Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) president and current advisor to the PM, weighed in via social media on Thursday.<\/p>\n

In an X post, Getachew accused the TPLF, which he referred to as \u201cthose left behind,\u201d of working to undermine the Pretoria agreement and argued that the federal government has so far turned a blind eye to the alleged machinations.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThey are now attempting to drag the federal government back into another conflict,\u201d he wrote, describing such a move as \u201cfoolishness.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eGetachew went further, alleging that TPLF is executing a mission on behalf of Shaabiya (the Eritrean regime) and naming senior military leaders in Tigray, including General Fisseha Kidanu and General Yohannes Weldegiorgis (Medid), as central figures in the operation.<\/p>\n

He characterized TPLF\u2019s alleged plan to use the closure of the Afar route, an essential corridor that handles the vast majority of Ethiopia\u2019s international trade, as a tool for negotiation as \u201csheer stupidity.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eGetachew also stressed that both Tigrayan forces (aka TDF) and those operating in Afar under the moniker \u2018Tigray Peace Forces\u2019 (TPF) have no interest whatsoever in engaging in conflict with the federal government.<\/p>\n

The former TIA chief urged them to safeguard themselves from being used as tools in Eritrea\u2019s political agenda, reiterating the importance of remaining independent from Asmara\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n

On Friday, the TIA, now led by Lt. General Tadesse Werede, denied that any attack had taken place in Afar.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis accusation is entirely baseless,\u201d reads a TIA statement. \u201cThere has been no violation of the Afar-Tigray border, from either side.\u201d<\/p>\n

The TIA had issued another statement decrying \u201crecurring provocations by armed groups in Afar\u201d and emphasizing its continued commitment to dialogue.<\/p>\n

However, it also accused \u201cwar-mongering elements within the federal government\u201d of undermining the peace process.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe exchange left the impression of an unraveling ceasefire, with each side accusing the other of provocation while insisting on its own restraint.<\/p>\n

\u200eIn a rare public appeal issued ahead of the reported Afar incident, General Migbey Haile, a TDF commander, called on forces opposed to war and seeking peace\u2014as well as all Ethiopians\u2014to stand with the army and the people of Tigray.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe call on all entities in our surroundings who oppose war\u2014whether Afar, Amhara, Agaw, or Eritrea\u2014to stand with the army and the people of Tigray. We do this not to dwell on the past, but because we do not want it to be repeated,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u200eHe noted that the region lies along a strategic border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, emphasizing that issues related to sovereignty and war crimes must be addressed through legal means, while expressing readiness to work together for peace.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cIf there is any force that says it will still continue to cause destruction, we tell them to please stop and restrain themselves,\u201d the General noted.<\/p>\n

\u200eIn parallel, the TPLF has also issued a statement insisting that \u201cthe [Pretoria] agreement is being undermined\u201d but not from its side.<\/p>\n

\u200eIn a communiqu\u00e9s issued last week, the TPLF, which was struck off the list of registered political parties by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) more than five months ago, responded to remarks made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) during his address to Parliament on October 28.<\/p>\n

In it, the TPLF argued that by reducing its legal status into a technical matter and \u201cby acting in a way that renders the agreement meaningless through selective and arbitrary interpretation, the federal government continues to erode the essence of the agreement.”<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough the peace agreement was signed between the federal government and the TPLF, some are attempting to portray it as an informal discussion among individuals rather than a formal institutional process. This was said in a parliament session conducted in the absence of Tigray\u2019s representatives,\u201d reads the statement.<\/p>\n

Speaking about the peace agreement during his most recent parliamentary address, the Prime Minister cited an Amharic proverb:<\/p>\n

“While the one who gave birth is still alive, the one who swaddled the baby says, \u2018I am the mother.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

The TPLF, in its counter statement, said this metaphor was symbolic of how the Ethiopian government views the Pretoria peace agreement “not as an instrument for peace but rather as a playing card being used to facilitate acts of genocide.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe statement noted that when the agreement was signed, the individuals who represented Tigray\u2014Getachew Reda, General Tsadkan Gebretensae, and Assefa Abraha\u2014were all representatives assigned by the TPLF.<\/p>\n

“The government was well aware that members of the delegation were not the actual owners or signatories of the agreement,” it reads.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThe truth,\u201d the statement added, \u201cis that the Prime Minister\u2019s analogy stands inverted; it is he and his government who have turned the agreement into an orphan, stripping it of its mother.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe TPLF argues that those individuals were not the architects of the agreement but were tasked with implementing it, adding that \u201cthe agreement, which sought to end a war that shocked the world and drew international attention, has been undermined, indicating that there has been no remorse or accountability for previous atrocities.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe TPLF further warned that if the federal government fails to halt its preparations for another round of war, \u201cthe consequences will be dire in every direction,\u201d urging “the responsible body” to act promptly to prevent further deterioration.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe TPLF alleges the federal government is mobilizing the military in neighboring regions and claims there is sufficient evidence that Addis Ababa is not committed to implementing the peace agreement.<\/p>\n

The party appealed to “the African Union Panel, other guarantor bodies, and the international community\u2014who have been repeatedly urged to review the implementation of the agreement\u2014to recognize that the peace accord is at serious risk.”<\/p>\n

\u200eIn its latest statement, the TPLF once again called for an independent evaluation of the agreement\u2019s implementation.<\/p>\n

\u200eMeanwhile, as tensions and finger-pointing mounted over the past two weeks, the TIA cabinet issued its own warning about developments in western Tigray.<\/p>\n

\u200eIt stated that as per the agreement, an interim administration was established with the understanding that, over time, a legitimate government would be formed. However, The TIA cabinet alleges it is being sidelined under the pretext of returning IDPs to western Tigray.<\/p>\n

\u200eWhile acknowledging that Pretoria had aimed to restore constitutional autonomy, ensure the safe return of displaced persons, reconstruct the region and revive regional governance, the TIA said many of those objectives \u201cremain unaddressed.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe TIA also called for the establishment of a joint framework for cooperation that would uphold the spirit of the peace agreement, stressing that there is no alternative to dialogue and sincerity.<\/p>\n

\u200eIt warned that any course of action outside this framework could bring further harm and destruction and that any attempt to deviate from the agreement would not be acceptable.<\/p>\n

\u200eOn a varying tone, TIA Deputy President Amanuel Assefa went further in an interview with regional state-affiliated Dimtsi Weyane Television<\/em>, accusing \u201ccertain groups backed by the federal government\u201d of attempting to \u201cpermanently alter the territorial and demographic composition of the region,\u201d referring to western Tigray.<\/p>\n

\u200eHe alleged that “new settlers in Western Tigray\u201d are being treated as rightful owners of homes, farmland, and businesses seized by force,\u201d despite earlier understandings that displaced Tigrayans would return safely.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter discussions between representatives of the federal government and TIA an agreement had initially been reached. According to that earlier understanding , those who had settled in the area would remain in place while the displaced residents were to return and, together with the local population, aim to gradually pave the way for a referendum,\u201d said Amanuel.<\/p>\n

\u200eHowever, the TIA Deputy alleges that this was later reversed.<\/p>\n

\u200e”When the matter began to be discussed more openly, the federal government declared, \u2018There is no such thing\u2019\u201d dismissing the issue altogether,” he said. \u200e\u201cNow, what was once agreed upon has been replaced by two new \u2018options.\u2019 The return of displaced people is no longer being implemented because the forces that seized the area have not withdrawn. The new settlers remain, and the imposed administrations have not been dissolved.\u201d<\/p>\n

He further accused certain unnamed groups of \u201cbetrayal,\u201d accusing them of working with Addis Ababa to undermine and dismantle the region.<\/p>\n

Amanuel claims the efforts are geared towards altering the region\u2019s administrative and geographical structure, and changing its demographics in the long term. \u00a0<\/p>\n

\u200eAs tensions sharpened, the European Union and Norway, along with the embassies of 21 EU member states, released a joint statement marking the Pretoria Agreement\u2019s third anniversary.<\/p>\n

They praised progress in \u201cthe silencing of guns, resumption of basic services, and the beginning of reintegration,\u201d but warned that sustaining peace \u201crequires continued political will and inclusive dialogue.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe communiqu\u00e9 urged both the federal government and the TPLF \u201cto begin political dialogue without delay, well before the next national elections,\u201d while reaffirming support for transitional justice mechanisms \u201ccentered on truth, accountability, and reconciliation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eThe timing was not accidental: the statement came amid deepening mistrust, mirrored in TPLF\u2019s own anniversary declaration accusing Addis Ababa of \u201cdeliberate reluctance\u201d and \u201cmanipulative delay\u201d in implementing the accord.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe group claimed federal leaders were \u201cpreparing for a new round of war,\u201d mobilizing militias near Tigray\u2019s borders, and spreading \u201chate propaganda.\u201d<\/p>\n

The military establishment issued the sharpest speech yet in response to the developments.<\/p>\n

\u200eSpeaking in Bishoftu on October 24, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, chief of general staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), delivered his most forceful warning since the signing of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.<\/p>\n

\u200eIn a nationally televised speech marking the fifth anniversary of the attack on the Northern Command that sparked the last conflict, the Field Marshal accused the TPLF of engaging in conspiracies and plots over the last three years\u2014actions he said were more than enough grounds to return to war.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cIf we were a war-loving government, if we were a war-loving defense force,\u201d Berhanu declared, \u201cthe conspiracies, acts, and plots that TPLF has committed after Pretoria would have been enough to go back to war.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eObservers note that the commemoration, held at the Bishoftu Air Force Training Center and attended by senior officers including Deputy Chief of Staff General Abebaw Tadesse, was as much a remembrance as it was a stark message.<\/p>\n

Berhanu\u2019s 40-minute speech, both historical and accusatory, signaled that patience within the military may be wearing thin.<\/p>\n

\u200eThe Field Marshal began by revisiting\u00a0November 2020.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThe attack that was carried out five years ago was a betrayal and a disgrace,\u201d he said, emphasizing that his words were directed at TPLF as an organization, \u201cnot at the people of Tigray.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eHe went further, noting that even within TPLF, there were internal divisions.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cEven TPLF itself is not a monolith,\u201d he said. \u201cSometimes things become collective and lead to consequences that harm the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eAt the center of his speech was what he repeatedly described as a shadowy power structure within TPLF, which he called the \u2018Gujile\u2019 \u2014 a term he used to describe a conspiratorial core that, he claimed, has operated for decades.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThe act was carried out by a particular TPLF faction, which habitually engages in conspiracies,\u201d Berhanu said. \u201cAs long as that power has not been uprooted, Ethiopia will not find peace.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eWithout naming names, he alleged that this group\u2019s influence stretches back half a century, linking it to the origins of TPLF and its founders.<\/p>\n

\u200eThroughout the speech, the term betrayal\u00a0was mentioned time and again.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThis force that was created inside Ethiopia is a spirit of betrayal, a force of betrayal,\u201d he said. \u201cUntil this force is uprooted, Ethiopia will not have peace.\u201d<\/p>\n

The \u200eField Marshal went on to list what he described as TPLF\u2019s post-Pretoria provocations including resuming military training, and reassembling demobilized combatants under the DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration) program.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cThe conspiracies, the defiance, the acts \u2014 all these are enough to go back to war,\u201d he repeated. \u201cBut in any war, it is the TPLF that loses and the people of Tigray will be the ones who suffer. We have already seen that in the last war.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also accused TPLF of forming new alliances with Eritrea\u2019s ruling party in an unconstitutional and treasonous partnership he termed \u201cTsimdo.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cTo cross a border by itself is unconstitutional,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile crying out, \u2018they [Eritrea] committed genocide against me [Tigray region],\u2019 and at the same time saying, \u2018Shaabiya is our friend, our ally; we will betray Ethiopia together, weaken Ethiopia together.\u2019 That kind of thing is happening. This, in another form, is a manifestation of betrayal.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eBerhanu further alleged that TPLF had supplied \u201cbullets and plans\u201d to Fano, the Amhara armed group now locked in intermittent conflict with the federal government.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cIn the past, on the Northern Wollo front, [TPLF] connected with Fano, entered the regional state, made plans, gave them leadership, and fought together. But we kept silent,\u201d he said. \u201cBecause we are the government. We have responsibility. We do not respond to every provocation. But if it goes past the limit, then we will have no choice.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eEven as he issued repeated warnings, Berhanu insisted that the military remained restrained.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cWe have seen all of this, and yet we did not return to war,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat they are doing now is harmful, but if war comes again, it will bring even greater harm. That is why we have chosen patience.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eYet patience, he warned, has limits.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cNo matter how much we are provoked, if attacked, if it becomes like the previous Northern Command, our defense will not cease. We alone cannot prevent war,\u201d said Berhanu.<\/p>\n

He reiterated that the Ethiopian government and its defense forces do not want another war. Yet their language left open the possibility, even the readiness, for one.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u201cWe are not eager. We do not stir up war. We do not want war,\u201d Berhanu said near the end of his address. \u201cBut if something crosses the line of our peace and our national interest, and crosses the border, then we must defend. That is what we have prepared and armed for.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u200eIt was a sobering end to a fiery address\u2014one that blended military commemoration with indictment, and signaled that beneath Ethiopia\u2019s fragile post-war calm, the guns may not be too far from readiness.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u200eAmid the escalating rhetoric, civil societies and opposition political parties in Tigray urge all sides not to return to conflict. Among those who champion a sustainable peace is the Tigray Independence Party (TIP).<\/p>\n

It issued one of its strongest warnings yet in a statement marking the Pretoria anniversary this week.<\/p>\n

TIP said growing tensions between the federal government and TPLF could \u201clead to a renewed cycle of war and destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.\u201d\u200e\u200e<\/p>\n

The party accused \u201ca self-proclaimed military force that considers itself above the law\u201d of working with TPLF and Eritrean forces to \u201cprovoke new conflict.\u201d It urged the accord\u2019s guarantors to pressure both sides to fully implement the peace deal.<\/p>\n

TIP further criticized both the TPLF leadership and senior military figures in Tigray, saying they had \u201cforced the people of Tigray to pay a heavy price.\u201d It described Prime Minister Abiy\u2019s remarks comparing the Tigray conflict with others as \u201cpouring salt on a wound\u201d and \u201ca pretext to continue systemic ethnic cleansing.\u201d\u200e\u200e<\/p>\n

To TIP\u2019s leaders, the core of the problem lies in legitimacy.<\/p>\n

\u201cMaking the Pretoria Agreement effective,\u201d reads the statement, \u201crequires the establishment of a lawful, inclusive, and representative administration in the region.\u201d\u200e\u200e<\/p>\n

Observers and political analysts note that the statements marking Pretoria\u2019s third anniversary, taken together, reveal a peace process losing coherence. Once-muted disputes over implementation have turned into mutual recriminations, regional actors are openly threatening to defend borders; and military leaders are speaking of betrayal and readiness for war<\/p>\n

The TIA\u2019s plea for dialogue and sincerity, the EU\u2019s call for political will, and the army chief\u2019s vow to defend sovereignty all point to a country edging back toward confrontation even as each insists it seeks peace.<\/p>\n

\u200e\u200eAnalysts note that beneath the rhetoric lies a structural impasse: Pretoria was a ceasefire agreement masquerading as a political settlement. Its silence on core constitutional and territorial questions, including the status of western Tigray, security arrangements, and the TPLF\u2019s political recognition, have now floated back up to the surface.<\/p>\n

Observers note that for the moment, Ethiopia\u2019s northernmost region remains quiet, but the calm feels increasingly brittle. The peace that Pretoria promised still exists on paper. On the ground, it hangs by a thread.\u200e<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u200e\u200eWhen the guns fell silent after the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022, the nation along with the world exhaled with relief. \u200eTwo years of brutal war between the federal government and the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front (TPLF) had torn Ethiopia apart, reportedly leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. \u200eThe agreement, mediated under […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":47681,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1957],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-47680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-in-depth"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}