In a recent interview, Yacob explained why Ethiopia\u2019s claims over the port are legitimate.<\/p>\n
\u201cHistorically, Assab was never part of Eritrea. When Eritrea was formed, Assab was under Rubatino. The people of Assab are the people of Afar in Ethiopia. Assab was sold by an Afar landholder to an Italian. Emperor Menelik did not know about the sale at the time, due to [poor] connectivity. Menelik repeatedly announced to the world that Ethiopia is bounded by the Red Sea. There is nothing that relates Assab to Eritrea historically,\u201d said Yacob.<\/p>\n
The expert noted that several territorial agreements signed between Emperor Menelik and Italy have all been voided by the UN.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven Italy itself nullified the agreements after it lost the Second World War. Ethiopia also nullified the agreements,\u201d said Yacob.<\/p>\n
His book argues the Algiers Agreement is also void, with Yacob blaming TPLF and EPRDF for what he describes as a historic failure.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere were many opportunities to include Assab as Ethiopian territory. The international community was also positive in supporting Ethiopia on this. But EPRDF officials, particularly Prime Minister Meles, were unwilling to do this. Meles was unwilling to retain Assab. This affinity towards Eritrea was nothing short of treason,\u201d said Yacob.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Hidden Hands: Assab, 2018, and TPLF\u2019s fate<\/strong><\/p>\n Documents from a UN Security Council Monitoring Group show reports of unusual military activity in and around Assab in 2016. At the time, the port was being used by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Eritrea for the transport of troops and equipment to Aden in the context of the conflict across the Red Sea in Yemen.<\/p>\n Reports from the time indicate the port was a source of concern for Israel, which feared Assab could fall under the control of the Iran-backed Houthis fighting a coalition of forces from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others with the backing of the US and Europe.<\/p>\n The reports suggest that Israel moved to encourage Eritrea to re-integrate with Ethiopia as a way to secure Assab. The port was a key agenda during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s 2016 visit to Ethiopia and PM Hailemariam Desalegn\u2019s reciprocal visit to Israel the following year, according to the reports.<\/p>\n Israeli diplomats visited both Asmara and Addis Ababa in 2017, and a one-person delegation travelled from Israel to Mekelle on 24 December, 2017 for a meeting with senior officials in the regional capital.<\/p>\n While the visit to Mekelle was framed as a discussion over proposals for collaborations in research, documents and anecdotal sources reveal the key agenda was a political proposal for resetting relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including the port of Assab.<\/p>\n Leaders of the TPLF refused the proposal, with the refusal, according to researchers, sealing the party\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n Publications including \u2018A Secret Deal to Conceal: The Eritrean Involvement in the Tigray War<\/em>\u2019 as well as \u2018The Ximdo Gamble: TPLF\u2013Eritrea Alliance and the Fragile Peace in Tigray and the Horn of Africa<\/em>\u2019 also reach the same conclusion.<\/p>\n Reports indicate that Israel\u2019s dissatisfaction with the TPLF\/EPRDF\u2019s unwillingness to collaborate led Isaias Afwerki, an archenemy of the TPLF, to utter the phrase \u201cgame over, TPLF\u201d in 2018, while other sources say he made the comment as far back as 2016.<\/p>\n The rest is history. The TPLF-led EPRDF was toppled in April 2018, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s ascent to power was characterized in its early days by the normalization of relations with Eritrea. In July 2018, the PM visited Asmara and signed the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship.<\/p>\n Two months later, Abiy and Isaias signed the Jeddah Agreement, marking the formal end of more than two decades of hostilities between their respective countries.<\/p>\n The reconciliation promised a new era of peace, holistic cooperation, and joint-development aspirations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and spurred a new wave of investment in the region.<\/p>\n In 2019, the EU and the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) launched infrastructure projects linking Eritrean ports with the Ethiopian border. The EU Trust Fund for Africa immediately allocated the first tranche of a 20 million euro pledge to finance a road linking Assab with Ethiopia.<\/p>\n The normalization also earned PM Abiy a Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n A few years later, the Eritrean military would serve as a key ally for the two-year war between the federal government and forces loyal to the TPLF.<\/p>\n The Deeper Entanglement<\/strong><\/p>\n The war, and the cessation of hostilities agreement that ended it in November 2022, would ultimately undo the normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea\u2014a process that observers criticized for lacking institutionalization from the outset.<\/p>\n The Pretoria Agreement was signed as a result of mounting international pressure surrounding the\u00a0 conflict and reports of grave rights violations. Reports indicate the peace deal was ill-received in Asmara.<\/p>\n \u201cIsaias was furious because Abiy signed the agreement. They had agreed to annihilate TPLF completely, but TPLF was saved by the peace deal. However, Abiy could not sustain the war due to its economic toll and the pressure from the international community,\u201d said a seasoned geopolitical analyst who spoke to The Reporter <\/em>anonymously.<\/p>\n Getachew Reda, who was among the signatories on the TPLF side and is currently an advisor to the PM, described the conditions leading up to the agreement in a recent article.<\/p>\n He argued the peace deal was the only option to save Tigray from \u201ca near breakdown,\u201d and revealed the 10-day negotiation process in Pretoria seemed hopeless before PM Abiy and Uhuru Kenyatta salvaged the situation.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the final hours, it was the federal side\u2014negotiating from a stronger position\u2014that\u00a0nearly risked\u00a0collapse,\u201d stated Getachew, who also chairs Simret, a new political party that seeks to push TPLF out of political power in Tigray.<\/p>\n He explained Tigray was on the verge of collapse, and TPLF representatives went to Pretoria to sign a truce without any preconditions. While he praised the deal for saving Tigray, he argues the faltering implementation of its terms has \u201ccreated space for spoilers and encouraged selective foot-dragging where cooperation from the federal side was\u00a0required.\u201d<\/p>\n Like other analysts, Getachew agrees the peace agreement\u2019s exclusion of Eritrea continues to impact the post-war environment.<\/p>\n \u201cPretoria is largely silent on external actors, above all, Eritrea. Many Tigrayans\u2014and a wide range of independent reports during the war\u2014have alleged grave abuses by Eritrean forces, including killings and widespread sexual violence. Eritrea was not a party to the negotiations and did not sign the agreement. It has also shown no appetite for external scrutiny. No domestic Ethiopian process can credibly adjudicate crimes committed by a foreign military. That creates an accountability asymmetry that continues to poison the peace. Eritrea\u2019s exclusion from Pretoria was not an oversight. It was a diplomatic necessity. Bringing Asmara into the room would have risked collapsing the talks. Leaving it out allowed the ceasefire to be signed. But the cost was obvious: a central actor in the war was left outside the peace architecture,\u201d wrote Getachew.<\/p>\n Eritrean leaders have publicly criticized the agreement, framing it as an external plot and signaling resentment that it halted what they saw as a decisive final push.<\/p>\n A historical researcher and political analyst who spoke to The Reporter <\/em>anonymously notes that while relations between TPLF and Shabia have been uneasy since they began as part of a mutual struggle against the Derg regime, the real source of the tension is Asmara\u2019s nation-building aspirations and the obstacles that TPLF poses.<\/p>\n Decades after gaining statehood, Eritrea has largely been unable to embark on nation building, says the researcher.<\/p>\n \u201cEritrea still lacks the ingredients required for nation building and development. The first ingredient is the foundational history and fabric to bond together and brand the nation of Eritrea using its robust history and \u2018ancientness.\u2019 The history and civilization of both the people of Eritrea and Tigray is Axum. Axum is in Tigray. So, Eritrea needs Axum to succeed in its nation building. Eritrea tried to draw this from Adulis. But their efforts to bring the nation-building narrative to Adulis did not work because Adulis has neither the religious nor civilization fabric,\u201d he told The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n The alternatives, according to the researcher, were to either destroy TPLF and integrate with Ethiopia, or to crush Tigray and claim Axum. Asmara opted for the second route.<\/p>\n \u201cImmediately after the TPLF was crushed during the war, Eritrea took control of Axum. It also redrew its borders to include Axum, among other parts of Tigray, in Eritrea,\u201d said the researcher. \u201cIsaias\u2019 plan was to make the TPLF politically irrelevant and use Tigray as an economic and cultural stepping stone for his nation building. Eritrea knows it cannot realize its nation building as well as achieve economic development without dependence on Ethiopia. The TPLF says to Eritrea \u2018you can access Ethiopia only through TPLF.\u2019 Eritrea wants to access Ethiopia directly, without the TPLF,\u201d said the researcher.<\/p>\n Nonetheless, the TPLF (or part of it) is currently in the process of forming an alliance with Asmara.<\/p>\n \u201cNow, after the federal\u00a0 government failed to fully implement the Pretoria Agreement, and the Ethiopian government articulated its interest in sea access, Eritrea and TPLF are forming an alliance against it,\u201d said the researcher.<\/p>\n The strange change in circumstances has been accompanied by increasingly fiery rhetoric between the federal government on one side, and the TPLF and Asmara on the other. And while fear that another war could erupt remain heightened, analysts and insiders who spoke to The Reporter<\/em> do not believe a major conflict will break out.<\/p>\n \u201cIsaias and Abiy would love to fight, but whether the war happens or not will be decided by foreign powers and not by Addis Ababa or Asmara,\u201d said a military analyst, speaking anonymously.<\/p>\n He warned that if a war were to break out, it would almost certainly be fought in Tigray.<\/p>\n \u201cAlthough Ethiopia wants Assab, both Ethiopia and Eritrea have a number of reasons not to fight in the lowlands. Eritrea relies on its mechanized forces, but its old USSR tanks and machines cannot function in the searing temperatures of the lowlands. So it prefers the bushy land along the Tigray border. Deploying a fleet of tanks to the lowland plains where there is no forest cover exposes it to Ethiopian drones. For Ethiopia, fighting in the lowlands of Assab leaves it open to a flank. Assab is far from Asmara, and fighting there cannot enable Ethiopia to access the political center of Eritrea. Tigray is closer, so Ethiopia may prefer to fight there; at least in northeastern Tigray,\u201d the analyst told The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n What\u2019s Next?<\/strong><\/p>\n The statements issued by the AU, UN, and EU over the past week signal the international community\u2019s growing concern about the potential for another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Analysts contend the most serious concern at the moment lies with the TPLF and its frantic efforts to regain political footing both in Ethiopia and regionally, which they warn might spiral to a major conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.<\/p>\n Some argue the circumstances are more likely to result in minor clashes or engagements through proxies rather than a full-blown conflict.<\/p>\n \u201cEritrea is already supporting TPLF and Fano forces in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is also working on organizing forces against the Eritrean regime leveraging forces in the Afar region. The Afar ethnic group in Ethiopia is the same as in Assab. On top of these, the two countries might also lean on the Tsimdo forces,\u201d said the military analyst.<\/p>\n Analysts like Costantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), however, worry about the lack of effort toward mediating a resolution between the two countries.<\/p>\n \u201cThe absence of a credible and assertive international community is eroding the venue for peaceful resolutions. I am worried about who will initiate credible and strong mediation and peaceful conflict resolution between Ethiopia and Eritrea, if the two countries edge to war with each other? I believe the reason the UN, AU, and EU are issuing statements now is likely because they see the likelihood of an upcoming conflict. The international community must step up, initiate strong mediation, secure peaceful resolution, and avert the possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea,\u201d urged Costantinos.<\/p>\n Eritrea\u2019s willingness to take part in mediation appears to be growing thinner.<\/p>\n Last month, UN Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, Guang Cong, traveled to Asmara and held discussions with Isaias. The Eritrean president criticized the UN for failures in conflict resolution and decried what he sees as an absence of holistic underlying frameworks, unwarranted external interventions, and external influence in regional organizations.<\/p>\n Last week, Eritrea formally withdrew from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).<\/p>\n Over the past few months, Isaias has made official visits to Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, leading analysts to argue he is mobilizing support in the Arab world in case a war were to break out with Ethiopia.<\/p>\n Still, people like Getachew Reda contend there is little chance the tensions will boil over into open conflict. He argued the point during an intense interview on Aljazeera<\/em>\u2019s Head-to-Head program.<\/p>\n However, the military analyst says the outcome will ultimately be determined not by decisions made in Ethiopia and Eritrea, but in Egypt and Israel.<\/p>\n \u201cBoth Egypt and Israel have a growing interest in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Egypt is leveraging domestic forces in Ethiopia and regional forces in neighboring countries. Egypt intends to influence Ethiopia into turning focus away from developing the Abbay River. If Egypt prevails, this might drag Eritrea towards the Arab world. However, Israel has a strong interest in protecting the Red Sea from further infiltration of extremist presences. All in all, the outcome of the tension between Egypt and Israel will also decide the situation of Ethiopia and Eritrea. But the outcome of the tension between Egypt and Israel will be determined by who will get stronger backing from Washington,\u201d he told The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n Regardless, another war would be devastating for both countries and the wider region, which is already burdened by conflict. Yacob urges both governments to look for a mutually beneficial solution.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t believe Ethiopia\u2019s interest in Assab is a dead end. But accessing Assab must be peaceful, through negotiation. The ideal way would be for Ethiopia and Eritrea to install a special administration to co-manage Assab,\u201d he said. \u201cAs long as Ethiopia has no port, Ethiopia\u2019s existence is always in danger. At the same time, Eritrea needs Ethiopia to utilize its ports for its own development.\u201d<\/p>\n The AU\u2019s statement also urges both countries to opt for peace.<\/p>\n \u201cAs we mark this [Algiers Agreement] anniversary, the Chairperson calls upon Ethiopia and Eritrea to renew their commitment to the spirit of the Algiers Agreement, and to embrace dialogue, good neighborliness as the best path to durable good-neighbourliness. The stability of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, and the wellbeing of their peoples, depend on sustained efforts to strengthen trust, deepen cooperation, and prevent escalations that undermine collective security,\u201d it reads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Over the past week, the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), and African Union (AU) have all issued statements urging the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea to commit to the terms of the peace agreement the two countries signed to end a brutal border war a quarter-century ago. The Algiers Agreement, signed in December 2000, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":48209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1957],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-48207","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-in-depth"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/42"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48207\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"|](\"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/THE-STRINGS-BEHIND-ASSAB-STILL-PULL333.jpg\" "\\"|")
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